“All politics for people” is one of the slogans of the victory of Imran Khan in the elections in Pakistan.

Post-release of the IV-th International Congress of APPC
14.05.2018
(Русский) V-й Международный конгресс политических консультантов.
11.12.2019

The party, backed by a former cricket hero of the country and a likely new prime minister, received the majority of votes in the July 25, 2018 election. We will consider what consequences can be caused for India, China, the USA, Europe, the Middle East, as well as for Russia and Ukraine with the victory of “Terik-i-Insaf” in the parliamentary elections in Pakistan, thereby making the change of power in the country under a democratic screen in Pakistan.

The Justice Movement party (Terik-i-insaf), led by Imran Khan, or the Taliban Khan, according to official figures, won by gaining a majority of votes and seats, in a controversial calculus from 109 to 116, apparently gets 113.

But for a complete victory, he will probably have to unite with supporters of Bhutto (Pakistan People’s Party), which has more than 40 seats (led by Bilaval Zardari, who won bronze in 43 seats). This will overcome the barrier set by 137 parliamentarians out of 269 seats in parliament. Perhaps for a strong majority, members of the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-K), who won 4 seats in the new parliament, will be involved. From 2013 to 2018, it is a member of the ruling coalition in Balochistan. In the elections to the national assembly of 2018, she joined a large democratic alliance.

Another ally may be the Muttahida Kaumi Movement (United National Movement), they have 6 seats, to this day remain the largest liberal party in Pakistan and canned opposition. Khan will need this step in order to consolidate the image of a liberal from the West, especially his relationship with British clubs and his marriage to Jemima Goldsmith, as well as his support for a secular audience, lies in his obvious policy of contradictions. Although the question remains of skillful compatibility with his ultra-right views and liberal dogmas: attacks on feminism as a “Western concept” and attempts to actualize extremism, having launched full-scale defense of the controversial laws on blasphemy of Pakistan, which carry the maximum death penalty.

“No Muslim can call himself a Muslim if he does not believe that the Prophet Muhammad is the last prophet,” he said, “a statement that caused alarm among the sect of Ahmadi who are being persecuted for believing in the prophet after Muhammad.

The world views and political-populist practices of the Taliban Khan are very contradictory, but have certain tendencies towards a certain support for the ideas of the Taliban and some anti-Americanism from the national Pakistani positions and are implicated in liberal ideology. Therefore, it will be difficult for him, but it is necessary to choose a clearer position in the quadrature of contradictions in the external orientation: China-USA-India-Russia.

Recently, in the press and expert pools, very often they want to put Hann’s inconsistency on a par with Trump. However, the Taliban Khan also wants to ascribe the sharp unpredictability of Trump, they have different driving forces and national-mental features. Yes, and Imran Khan is rather impulsive and arrogant, but not a player in big politics, and it seems that Khan owes his victory to the military and apparently they will pull the levers of power. Khan himself does not control the war machine, which now carries it on its shoulders, but also in its own interests. Therefore, one can also expect that governance and foreign policy under Khan will gain impulsiveness and militarism, which will be fully justified, as before, when the country’s economic and social situation required it.

Financial analysts almost unanimously note that Pakistan is heading for another financial crisis.

Therefore, his right-of-center Terik-i-Insaf party, with populist methods of rhetoric, has set about repeating ambitions from Pakistan’s larger neighbors. Chinese President Xi Jinping has launched an aggressive anti-corruption campaign, and Narandra Modi from India has been elected with a similar promise.

But, alas, for Khan, the plan to increase social security spending by more than four times is unlikely to be implemented. Pakistan, of course, is likely to seek support from the International Monetary Fund. But such support will require the rupee to fall another 10 percent by the end of the year, and interest rates will increase by another 100 basis points. The rivalry with the potential savior of China is partially responsible for the country’s current predicament.

But the functionaries of the Tehrik-e-Insaf party are far from a gift for China, which traditionally perceives Pakistan as an ally in the confrontation with India. At first glance, it may seem that anti-Americanism (Khan is critical of the US military-political strategy in Afghanistan, and opposes Pakistan’s participation in the interests of US political campaigns in the region) of Imran Khan and priority for strengthening relations with neighboring states is more than ever worthwhile for the Celestial Empire in conditions of cooling relations with the United States. Pakistan is more than interesting for China as a gateway to the Indian Ocean.